SettlePoint separates operational software, development estimates, sealed-confirmed risk results and client-specific executable evidence. This page says which is which.
Operational for supported cells. Development estimate of adverse midpoint movement; not an executable quote or guaranteed client protection level.
Live measured headroom plus a development estimate of remaining midpoint path risk; not proof that a warning prevented a loss.
Operational execution workflow with a sealed-confirmed risk result: Risk First dispersion was 20%–26% of unmanaged due-date settlement.
Deterministic comparison. It becomes client-specific hard evidence when like-for-like executable quotes or actual fills are supplied.
Quote Margin: 121,230 causal development predictions produced 20 supported pair, side and horizon curves; 10 cells are withheld. Mean historical midpoint coverage was 80.38% for Lean, 89.57% for Balanced and 95.04% for Strong.
Margin Watch: 134,616 causal development predictions produced 19 supported curves; 11 cells are withheld. Mean historical midpoint path coverage was 86.15% for Lean, 94.44% for Balanced and 97.57% for Strong.
Those means summarise supported cells. They are not confidence statements for one invoice. Every live result must carry its pair, importer/exporter side, horizon, target and supported/withheld status.
Managed Spot mechanics were frozen and graded on 51,517 invoices from periods not used to design them. Across four sealed party-era cells, Risk First compressed outcome dispersion to 20%–26% of unmanaged due-date settlement.
Balanced and Opportunity First were positive in approximately 69%–75% of 16 calibration quarters, but results varied by period, pair and client side. That is historical calibration, not an expected return and not a promise that waiting will beat settling now.
Historical midpoint bars are not executable bid/ask RFQs. They do not contain actual quote expiry, bank markup, slippage, payment fees, value-date adjustments or the client’s realised all-in settlement price. A modelled warning is not a saving by itself. Hard value is counted from comparable executable bank quotes and realised spot results against the inception settle-now rate, net of disclosed costs.
SettlePoint does not combine the headline results of Quote Margin, Margin Watch and Managed Spot into one ROI number. That would double-count risk and value. A client case starts with invoice, RFQ and fill evidence and is then tested prospectively under frozen rules.